Will Jordan strike Iran by March 31?

Low probability of Jordan striking Iran by March 31, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a strong belief that Jordan will not strike Iran by the end of March, with a NO probability at 92%. The Pulse AI also supports this view, suggesting a slightly higher likelihood of action but still favoring a NO outcome. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 Key factors include regional stability and Jordan's military strategy.
• 3 Historical context shows low likelihood of Jordan engaging in military action against Iran.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting investor confidence in current probabilities.
• 5 Time pressure is unclear, as the expiry date is not specified.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.