Will Julia Roberts win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Market strongly favors Julia Roberts not winning Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market indicates a 100% probability that Julia Roberts will not win Best Actress, with a very low AI probability of 2% for a win. This suggests a strong consensus against her chances, and the market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2. Confidence in this assessment is high at 80 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment overwhelmingly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The market probability aligns closely with the AI probability, indicating stability.
• 3 High confidence level suggests strong conviction in the current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to any potential shifts.
• 5 No recent events indicate a likelihood of change in Julia Roberts' standing.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.