Will Kathryn Bigelow win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?

Kathryn Bigelow is highly unlikely to win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Kathryn Bigelow winning Best Director, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting minimal chance of a win at 2%. With 115 hours until the event, the market appears to be fairly priced, indicating a stable outlook.

• 1 Market probability shows overwhelming confidence against Bigelow's win.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment, indicating stability.
• 3 High confidence level suggests strong market conviction.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short, limiting potential shifts.
• 5 No recent indicators suggest a change in Bigelow's standing.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Director.

If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.