Will Khamenei tweet again on March 20, 2026?

Market indicates a high probability Khamenei will tweet on March 20, 2026.

The market shows a strong inclination towards the likelihood of Khamenei tweeting again, with a probability of 79.5%. This is supported by the Pulse AI probability of 72%, suggesting a consensus on the expectation of activity from Khamenei. However, the NO side appears undervalued, indicating potential for shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The NO side is undervalued by 7.5 points, indicating potential for adjustment.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is relatively short at 145 hours, increasing urgency.
• 5 Historical patterns of Khamenei's tweeting behavior may influence expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an official X profile of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei posts/tweets again between 12:00AM ET and 11:59PM ET on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Posts include any post, repost, or reply.

The resolution source for this market are Khamenei's official X profiles: https://x.com/khamenei_ir, https://x.com/KhameneiBangla, https://x.com/az_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_fa, https://x.com/ar_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_Heb. Posts/tweets from any other account will not qualify.