Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?

Market predicts a high likelihood of Khamenei tweeting on March 22, 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 74% probability that Khamenei will tweet again on the specified date, suggesting strong sentiment towards this outcome. The AI probability aligns closely but is slightly lower at 66.5%, indicating some uncertainty. The NO side appears undervalued, presenting a potential opportunity for shifts in sentiment.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a YES outcome significantly.
• 2 The NO side is undervalued by 7.5 points, suggesting potential for adjustment.
• 3 Khamenei's historical tweeting patterns may influence market expectations.
• 4 The confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time pressure is a factor with only 145 hours until the market expires.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if an official X profile of Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei posts/tweets again between 12:00AM ET and 11:59PM ET on the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Posts include any post, repost, or reply.

The resolution source for this market are Khamenei's official X profiles: https://x.com/khamenei_ir, https://x.com/KhameneiBangla, https://x.com/az_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_fa, https://x.com/ar_Khamenei, https://x.com/Khamenei_Heb. Posts/tweets from any other account will not qualify.