Will Kuwait strike Iran by March 31?

Low probability of Kuwait striking Iran by March 31, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a 90.5% likelihood that Kuwait will not strike Iran by the end of March, suggesting strong sentiment against such an event. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar outlook, with a slightly higher probability for a YES outcome at 13%. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 65 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of a YES outcome is relatively low at 9.5%.
• 3 Market pricing suggests stability in the geopolitical landscape.
• 4 Confidence level indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains low risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.