Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?

Market strongly favors NO for Ellison being the richest by year-end.

The prediction market indicates a high probability (99.65%) that Larry Ellison will not be the richest person on December 31. With a market probability of YES at only 0.35%, it suggests a consensus against this outcome, despite the Pulse AI showing a slightly higher YES probability at 1%. The edge of 0.65 indicates the market is fairly priced with moderate confidence.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors NO for Ellison's ranking.
• 2 Ellison's wealth is closely tied to Oracle's stock performance.
• 3 Historical trends show wealth rankings can shift rapidly.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable with low volatility.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential market adjustments.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.