Will Larry Page be richest person on December 31?

Low probability for Larry Page to be the richest person by year-end.

The market indicates a 2.7% chance that Larry Page will be the richest person on December 31, with a strong consensus against this outcome at 97.3%. The confidence level of 75/100 suggests moderate certainty in the current pricing, which appears fair given the circumstances.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors the NO outcome.
• 2 Market probability reflects a low likelihood of Page becoming the richest.
• 3 The edge is zero, indicating fair pricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level suggests moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential market shifts.

This market will resolve according to the name ranked #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.