Will Laura Dern win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Market overwhelmingly predicts Laura Dern will not win Best Actress.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Laura Dern winning Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards, with a 100% NO probability. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, indicating a low likelihood of her winning. With 78 hours until the event, the market appears to be fairly priced with an edge of 2.

• 1 Market probability strongly favors NO at 100%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability also indicates low chance for YES at 2%.
• 3 High confidence level of 80/100 suggests market stability.
• 4 Time to expiry is short at 78 hours, limiting potential shifts.
• 5 Edge of 2 indicates market is fairly priced without significant misalignment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.