Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026?

Lithuania has a low chance of winning Eurovision 2026 according to current market data.

The prediction market indicates a 0.35% probability of Lithuania winning Eurovision 2026, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher 1%. With a confidence rating of 80/100 and an edge of 0.65, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a strong consensus against Lithuania's chances.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Lithuania.
• 2 The low probability reflects historical trends in Eurovision outcomes.
• 3 Market liquidity appears stable, with no significant fluctuations.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Pulse AI's prediction aligns closely with market probabilities.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.