Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026?

Luxembourg has a low chance of winning Eurovision 2026 according to market data.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Luxembourg winning Eurovision 2026, with a probability of only 0.65% for a YES outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, with a slightly higher probability of 1% for a YES outcome, indicating a general agreement that Luxembourg is unlikely to secure victory.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome for Luxembourg.
• 2 The edge of 0.35 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 3 Confidence level of 75/100 indicates moderate certainty in the NO prediction.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial at 1627 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Historical performance of Luxembourg in Eurovision may influence future probabilities.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.