Will March 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?

March 2026 is unlikely to be the 3rd hottest month on record, per current market data.

The prediction market indicates a low probability of March 2026 being the 3rd hottest month, with a consensus of 98.6% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, albeit with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 2.9%, suggesting that while there is some uncertainty, the market is generally confident in the 'NO' outcome.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 98.6%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 2.9%.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in predictions.
• 5 Time to expiry is 690 hours, allowing for potential changes in conditions.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for March 2026 versus the data points available for all other Marches on record.

Note: If March 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Mar" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for March 2026 is provided by NASA by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.