Will Marty Supreme win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

Marty Supreme is unlikely to win Best Cinematography at the Oscars.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Marty Supreme winning Best Cinematography, with a 99.25% probability of a NO outcome. This aligns with the Pulse AI's assessment, indicating low confidence in a win despite a slight edge in market pricing.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.25%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a low chance of YES at 4.25%.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is 133 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Cinematography.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Cinematography when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.