Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?

Marty Supreme is unlikely to win Best Film Editing at the Oscars.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Marty Supreme winning Best Film Editing, with a 99.5% probability of a NO outcome. The AI model aligns closely with this sentiment, suggesting a low likelihood of victory. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors a NO outcome at 99.5%.
• 2 AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 4%.
• 3 Current sentiment indicates low confidence in Marty Supreme's win.
• 4 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Only 38 hours remain until the award ceremony, adding time pressure.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Film Editing.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Film Editing when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.