Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Low probability for Maryam Rajavi to be head of state in Iran by end of 2026.

The prediction market indicates a 2.30% chance of Maryam Rajavi becoming head of state in Iran by the end of 2026, with a strong consensus against this outcome at 97.7%. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting limited confidence in her ascension to power within this timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors the 'NO' outcome.
• 2 The market probability is significantly lower than the AI prediction.
• 3 Confidence level of 60/100 indicates moderate uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential political developments.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.5.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition with