Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?

The market indicates a low probability for 'Michael' to be the top grossing movie of 2026.

With a market probability of 3.05% for 'YES' and 96.95% for 'NO', the consensus is that 'Michael' is unlikely to achieve top grossing status. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 2. Confidence in this prediction is moderate at 75 out of 100.

• 1 Current sentiment heavily favors 'NO' for top grossing status.
• 2 Key factors include the film's genre and competition in 2026.
• 3 Historical data suggests few films achieve top grossing without strong pre-release hype.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current odds.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with over 7000 hours until expiry.

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.