Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?

Moldova has a very low chance of winning Eurovision 2026 according to current market data.

The prediction market indicates a 0.35% probability for Moldova to win Eurovision 2026, with a strong consensus against it. The Pulse AI also reflects a low probability of 1%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced with a slight edge of 0.65 and a high confidence level of 80/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome for Moldova.
• 2 Historical performance of Moldova in Eurovision has been mixed.
• 3 Liquidity in this market appears stable with low volatility.
• 4 Time until the event is substantial, allowing for potential shifts.
• 5 Market confidence is high, indicating a strong consensus among participants.

This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 wins.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.