Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

The market strongly favors no Fed rate cuts in 2026.

With a market probability of 84.4% for 'NO' and a Pulse AI probability of 83.9%, the consensus indicates a strong belief that the Federal Reserve will not implement rate cuts in 2026. The edge of 0.5 suggests that the market is fairly priced, reflecting a high level of confidence in this outcome.

• 1 Current sentiment leans heavily towards no rate cuts.
• 2 Market confidence is relatively high at 80/100.
• 3 The time to expiry is substantial at over 7000 hours.
• 4 Market pricing indicates a balanced view with minimal edge.
• 5 Historical trends suggest rate cuts are less likely in stable economic conditions.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.