Will No Other Choice win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

The market overwhelmingly predicts No Other Choice will not win Best Adapted Screenplay.

Current market probabilities indicate a strong consensus against No Other Choice winning the award, with a 100% probability of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects this sentiment, suggesting minimal chance for a YES outcome. The market appears to be fairly priced, indicating stable confidence among participants.

• 1 Market shows strong consensus with 100% NO probability.
• 2 Pulse AI aligns closely with market sentiment at 99% NO.
• 3 Confidence level is high at 85 out of 100.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 1.
• 5 No imminent events are known that could influence the outcome.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.