Will Oman strike Iran by April 30?

The market indicates a low probability of Oman striking Iran by April 30.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong consensus against Oman initiating military action against Iran, with a 95.8% likelihood of a 'NO' outcome. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, albeit with slightly higher probabilities for a potential strike. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 60 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a 'NO' outcome.
• 2 Geopolitical stability in the region is a key factor in the low probability.
• 3 Historical data shows limited military engagement between Oman and Iran.
• 4 Liquidity in the market is moderate, reflecting cautious investor sentiment.
• 5 The time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains low risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.