Will Oman strike Iran by March 31?

Low probability of Oman striking Iran by March 31, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards a NO outcome, with a probability of 98.05%. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of conflict, indicating a consensus that Oman is unlikely to engage militarily with Iran in the given timeframe.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap suggests market confidence in stability.
• 3 Historical context shows low instances of Oman-Iran conflict.
• 4 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader interest.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential shifts in geopolitical dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.