Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

High probability for One Battle After Another to win Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars.

The market indicates a strong belief in One Battle After Another winning Best Adapted Screenplay, with a 93.5% probability. However, the AI prediction suggests a slightly lower confidence at 86%, indicating potential undervaluation of the NO side. With 133 hours until the event, sentiment could shift based on emerging information.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a win for One Battle After Another.
• 2 The NO side is perceived as undervalued by 7.5 points.
• 3 Confidence level in the market is moderate at 60 out of 100.
• 4 There is a significant time window of 133 hours before the Oscars.
• 5 The AI prediction reflects a cautious outlook compared to market consensus.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.