Will "Opalite" by Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March 21?

The market strongly favors 'NO' for Opalite reaching #1 on Billboard.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood that 'Opalite' will not be the Billboard #1 song for the week of March 21, with a consensus of 99.1% for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, showing a significantly lower probability for 'YES' at 3.9%, suggesting that the market is fairly priced.

• 1 Market probability heavily favors 'NO' at 99.1%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns with market sentiment at 96.1% for 'NO'.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is 144 hours, allowing for potential shifts in sentiment.
• 5 Current market appears fairly priced with an edge of 3.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”.

This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of March 21, 2026”.

This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.