Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026?

The market indicates low likelihood for OpenAI to launch new hardware by March 2026.

Current market probabilities show a strong consensus against the launch of a new consumer hardware product by OpenAI, with a 97.35% likelihood of a NO outcome. The Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for a YES at 6.15%, indicating some divergence in sentiment but overall low expectations for such a product launch.

• 1 Market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome at 97.35%.
• 2 Pulse AI shows a slightly more optimistic view at 6.15% for YES.
• 3 The edge of 3.5 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 65/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding to the unpredictability of the market.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI publicly announces and launches a new consumer hardware product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "consumer hardware product" is defined as a physical device intended for direct use by individual consumers, rather than enterprise or developer tools. The product must be newly introduced and not a rebrand, update, or iteration of any previously released device.

Examples that would qualify include an AI-powered wearable, smart home assistant, or augmented reality device. Developer tools, AI chips, or servers marketed exclusively for enterprise use would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from OpenAI.