Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Market strongly favors NO for Paul Mescal winning Best Supporting Actor.

The prediction market shows a 100% probability against Paul Mescal winning Best Supporting Actor, indicating a strong consensus. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 98% probability for NO, suggesting that the market is fairly priced. Given the high confidence level of 80/100, there is little expectation for a shift in this outcome.

• 1 Current market sentiment is overwhelmingly against Mescal winning.
• 2 Historical data suggests low odds for upset wins in this category.
• 3 Liquidity appears stable, reflecting consistent trader confidence.
• 4 The time to expiry is relatively short at 116 hours.
• 5 Market dynamics indicate a low likelihood of significant changes.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.