Will Portugal advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Portugal has a low chance of advancing in the first Eurovision Semi-Final.

The prediction market indicates a 32.5% probability for Portugal to advance, while the Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance at 34%. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a time to expiry of 1046 hours, the market appears fairly priced with a small edge of 1.5.

• 1 Current market probability for YES is 32.5%, indicating skepticism about Portugal's chances.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market, suggesting consensus on Portugal's low likelihood to advance.
• 3 The edge of 1.5 indicates the market is fairly priced without significant mispricing.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 reflects moderate certainty in the current predictions.
• 5 With 1046 hours until expiry, there is ample time for sentiment to shift before the event.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.