Will Powell say "China" during March press conference?

Market favors 'NO' on Powell mentioning 'China' in March press conference.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards 'NO' at 74.5%, suggesting low expectations for Powell to mention 'China'. The Pulse AI probability indicates a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 30.5%, but overall confidence remains moderate at 55/100.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors 'NO'.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a consensus against mentioning 'China'.
• 3 Pulse AI shows a slightly higher probability for 'YES', suggesting some uncertainty.
• 4 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, increasing urgency in market dynamics.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.