Will Powell say "Distortion" during March press conference?

Market favors Powell not saying 'Distortion' in 29 hours.

The prediction market indicates a higher probability that Powell will not use the term 'Distortion' during the upcoming press conference. With a market probability of 71.5% for 'NO', this suggests a prevailing sentiment against the likelihood of the term being mentioned.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' at 71.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 33.5%.
• 3 The edge of 5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 29 hours, increasing potential volatility.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.