Will Powell say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" 7+ times during March press conference?

Market shows a close probability for Powell mentioning 'Fed' or 'Federal Reserve' 7+ times.

The market indicates a 58% chance that Powell will use 'Fed' or 'Federal Reserve' at least 7 times during the March press conference. The Pulse AI probability suggests a more balanced view, with only a slight edge for the NO side, which appears undervalued. With 38 hours until expiry, the situation remains fluid and could shift based on new information.

• 1 Current market probability favors YES at 58%, indicating some expectation of frequent terminology use.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a nearly even split, reflecting uncertainty in Powell's language choices.
• 3 The edge of -7.5 points for the NO side indicates potential mispricing in the market.
• 4 Confidence level of 60/100 suggests moderate certainty but acknowledges significant variability.
• 5 Time pressure of 38 hours may lead to rapid shifts in sentiment as the event approaches.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.