Will Powell say "Gold" or "Oil" during March press conference?

High probability that Powell will mention 'Gold' or 'Oil' in the upcoming press conference.

The market shows a strong consensus with an 86.5% probability that Powell will say either 'Gold' or 'Oil' during the March press conference. Despite this, the NO side appears undervalued by 7.5 points, suggesting some potential for a shift in sentiment. The confidence level is moderate at 60 out of 100, indicating some uncertainty in the prediction.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a YES outcome.
• 2 The NO side has a significant undervaluation, indicating potential for a shift.
• 3 The confidence level suggests moderate uncertainty in the prediction.
• 4 Time pressure is a factor with only 37 hours until the event.
• 5 Historical context may influence expectations around Powell's remarks.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.