Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?

Market shows equal probability for Powell saying 'Inflation' 50+ times in March.

The prediction market indicates a balanced outlook on whether Powell will mention 'Inflation' over 50 times during the upcoming press conference. With both market and AI probabilities closely aligned, the sentiment appears neutral, reflecting uncertainty about the topic's emphasis in the discussion. The confidence level suggests moderate certainty in the market's pricing.

• 1 Market probability is evenly split at 50% for both outcomes.
• 2 AI model slightly favors the 'NO' outcome at 53%.
• 3 The edge of -3 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level at 55 suggests moderate uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short, with only 29 hours remaining.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.