Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during March press conference?

Market suggests Powell is unlikely to say 'Inflation' 60+ times in March.

The current market probability indicates a strong belief that Powell will not mention 'Inflation' 60 or more times during the upcoming press conference. With a confidence level of 55/100 and a time to expiry of 37 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced, reflecting a balanced view between the YES and NO probabilities.

• 1 Current market probability favors a NO outcome at 78%.
• 2 Pulse AI probability suggests a slightly higher chance for YES at 27%.
• 3 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, with only 37 hours remaining for market adjustments.
• 5 Market edge of 5 indicates that pricing is relatively fair based on current data.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.