Will Powell say "Not our job" during March press conference?

Market predicts Powell will not say 'Not our job' at the March press conference.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards a 'NO' outcome, with 84.5% probability against 15.5% for 'YES'. The Pulse AI also supports this view, indicating a consensus that Powell is unlikely to use that phrase during the upcoming press conference.

• 1 Current market probability favors 'NO' significantly at 84.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 20.5%.
• 3 The market appears fairly priced with a low edge of 5.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating some uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 29 hours, adding urgency to market dynamics.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.