Will Powell say "Politics" during March press conference?

The market strongly favors that Powell will not say 'Politics' in March.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% expectation that Powell will not mention 'Politics' during the March press conference. The AI probability aligns closely with the market, suggesting a consensus on this outcome. Given the high confidence level, the market appears to be fairly priced with minimal expected volatility.

• 1 Market shows a strong consensus against Powell saying 'Politics'.
• 2 AI probabilities closely mirror market expectations.
• 3 High confidence rating suggests stability in current predictions.
• 4 No significant liquidity issues noted in the market.
• 5 Time to expiry remains unknown, adding uncertainty to future shifts.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.