Will Powell say "Recession" during March press conference?

Market leans towards Powell not saying 'Recession' in March.

The prediction market shows a higher probability for Powell not mentioning 'Recession' at 70.5%, compared to a 29.5% chance for a YES. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, indicating a consensus that a recession reference is unlikely during the upcoming press conference.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO on Powell saying 'Recession'.
• 2 Market probability closely aligns with Pulse AI predictions.
• 3 Confidence level indicates moderate uncertainty at 55/100.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to market movements.
• 5 Edge suggests the market is fairly priced with minimal mispricing.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.