Will Powell say "Refund" during March press conference?

Market favors 'NO' for Powell saying 'Refund' in March press conference.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards 'NO' at 87%, suggesting low expectations for Powell to use the term 'Refund' during the upcoming press conference. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment with a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 18%, indicating some uncertainty but still favoring 'NO'. With only 29 hours until expiry, the market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current market probability strongly favors 'NO' at 87%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher chance for 'YES' at 18%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 55 out of 100.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, with only 29 hours remaining.
• 5 Market appears fairly priced with an edge of 5.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.