Will Powell say "Shutdown" or "Shut Down" during March press conference?

Market favors Powell saying 'Shutdown' with a 69% probability ahead of the press conference.

The prediction market shows a strong inclination towards Powell using the term 'Shutdown' during his upcoming press conference, reflected in a 69% probability. However, the Pulse AI suggests a slightly lower probability of 60%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 9 points. With only 29 hours until the event, market sentiment may shift based on new information or statements from Powell.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors the YES side at 69%.
• 2 Pulse AI indicates a lower probability of 60% for the YES side.
• 3 The NO side appears undervalued by 9 points, suggesting potential for a shift.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 29 hours remaining until the event.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.