Will Powell say "Sorry" or "Pardon" during March press conference?

High probability for Powell to say 'Sorry' or 'Pardon' in March press conference.

The market shows an 80% probability that Powell will use either 'Sorry' or 'Pardon' during the upcoming press conference. This aligns closely with the Pulse AI probability of 72.5%, suggesting a strong consensus on this outcome, although the NO side appears slightly undervalued. With 39 hours until expiry, market sentiment remains confident but not overwhelmingly so.

• 1 Market probability shows strong belief Powell will apologize or clarify.
• 2 Pulse AI probability indicates a slightly lower confidence than market odds.
• 3 NO side is undervalued by 7.5 points, suggesting potential for reevaluation.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 60/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time pressure of 39 hours may influence last-minute shifts in sentiment.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.