Will Powell say "Successor" during March press conference?

Market leans towards Powell not using 'Successor' in his upcoming press conference.

The prediction market indicates a 69.5% probability that Powell will not say 'Successor' during the March press conference. This contrasts with the Pulse AI probability, which suggests a slightly higher chance of 35.5% for a YES outcome. The market appears fairly priced with a confidence level of 55 out of 100.

• 1 Current market sentiment favors a NO outcome at 69.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a higher likelihood for YES at 35.5%.
• 3 The edge of 5 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, reflecting uncertainty.
• 5 Time to expiry is short at 29 hours, increasing urgency in market dynamics.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.