Will Powell say "War" during March press conference?

Market shows a 61% chance Powell will say 'War' at the March press conference.

The market indicates a 61% probability that Powell will use the term 'War' during the upcoming press conference, suggesting a significant expectation among participants. However, the Pulse AI probability is lower at 52%, indicating a potential undervaluation of the NO side by 9 points. With only 29 hours until expiry, the market remains sensitive to any new developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans towards a YES outcome at 61%.
• 2 The NO side appears undervalued by 9 points according to the edge analysis.
• 3 Pulse AI probability suggests a more cautious outlook at 52%.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 55/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 29 hours until the event.

Jerome Powell is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on March 18, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the following Q&A session.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Powell says the listed term during the FOMC Press Conference. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If no such statement happens by March 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video and transcripts of the FOMC Press conference.