Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?

Low probability of Qatar striking Iran by April 30, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The prediction market indicates a strong consensus against Qatar striking Iran, with a 94.5% probability for NO. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood, suggesting minimal expectation of conflict in this timeframe. With a confidence level of 60/100 and a fair pricing edge, the market appears stable.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability of YES is significantly lower than NO.
• 3 Historical context suggests low likelihood of conflict between these nations.
• 4 Market liquidity appears stable, reflecting confidence in current pricing.
• 5 Time to expiry allows for potential developments but remains low risk.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.