Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?

The market indicates a low probability of Qatar striking Iran by March 31.

Current market probabilities suggest a strong belief that Qatar will not engage in military action against Iran by the end of March. Both the market and AI predictions align closely, indicating a consensus on the low likelihood of conflict, with a slight edge towards the AI's probability estimate.

• 1 Market probability for a strike is 22.5%, indicating skepticism about military action.
• 2 AI probability is slightly higher at 24.5%, suggesting some uncertainty remains.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced based on current information.
• 4 Confidence level of 80/100 reflects a strong consensus among participants.
• 5 Time to expiry is unknown, adding uncertainty to future developments.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.