Will Renate Reinsve win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Market indicates a low probability of Renate Reinsve winning Best Actress.

The prediction market shows a strong consensus against Renate Reinsve winning Best Actress, with a 99.5% probability for 'NO'. The Pulse AI also reflects a low likelihood of her victory, suggesting that current sentiment heavily favors other candidates in the category.

• 1 Current market sentiment strongly favors 'NO' for her winning.
• 2 The probability gap suggests other nominees are seen as more favorable.
• 3 Market appears fairly priced with a slight edge of 2.
• 4 Confidence level is relatively high at 75/100.
• 5 Time to expiry is limited, with only 129 hours remaining.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actress who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actress.

If an actress is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actress when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actress whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.