Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Low probability for Reza Pahlavi to be head of state in Iran by end of 2026.

The prediction market indicates a strong likelihood that Reza Pahlavi will not be head of state in Iran by the end of 2026, with a probability of 83.5% for 'NO'. The market appears fairly priced, suggesting that current sentiment aligns with the probabilities reflected.

• 1 Current market probability for 'YES' is 16.5%.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slightly higher probability for 'YES' at 18.5%.
• 3 The edge of 2 indicates the market is fairly priced.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 75 out of 100.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial at 7119 hours, allowing for potential developments.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition with