Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?

Market shows equal chances for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by April 30.

The prediction market indicates a balanced probability of 50% for both outcomes regarding Reza Pahlavi's potential entry into Iran by the end of April. The Pulse AI probability slightly favors a 'NO' outcome at 53%, suggesting a cautious sentiment among participants. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a time to expiry of 2432 hours, the market reflects uncertainty in geopolitical developments.

• 1 Current market sentiment is evenly split at 50% for both outcomes.
• 2 Pulse AI suggests a slight lean towards 'NO' at 53%.
• 3 Market confidence is moderate at 65/100, indicating uncertainty.
• 4 The edge of -3 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 5 Time to expiry is significant, with 2432 hours remaining for developments.

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.