Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Market shows low probability for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by year-end.

The prediction market indicates a 31.5% chance of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by December 31, with a stronger consensus against it at 68.5%. The Pulse AI model suggests a slightly higher probability of 33.5%, indicating a moderate level of uncertainty around the event. Overall, the market appears fairly priced with an edge of 2.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily against Pahlavi's return.
• 2 Political stability in Iran is a key factor influencing probabilities.
• 3 Historical trends show low rates of exiled leaders returning under similar conditions.
• 4 Liquidity in this market is moderate, reflecting cautious interest.
• 5 Time pressure is significant with only 2706 hours until the deadline.

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.