Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by February 28?

The market strongly favors that Reza Pahlavi will not enter Iran by February 28.

Current market probabilities indicate a 100% likelihood that Reza Pahlavi will not enter Iran by the specified date. The Pulse AI also reflects a similar sentiment, with a 98% probability against his entry, suggesting strong consensus among participants regarding this outcome.

• 1 Market probability shows a strong consensus against Pahlavi's entry.
• 2 Pulse AI probability aligns closely with market sentiment.
• 3 The edge of 2 suggests the market is fairly priced.
• 4 High confidence level indicates strong participant conviction.
• 5 Time to expiry is substantial, allowing for potential developments.

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.