Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31?

The market strongly favors that Reza Pahlavi will not enter Iran by March 31.

Current market probabilities indicate a high likelihood of Reza Pahlavi not entering Iran by the specified date, with a consensus of 99.95% against and a low 0.05% in favor. The AI model slightly adjusts this with a 1.05% probability for entry, suggesting a minor divergence in sentiment but overall agreement on the outcome.

• 1 Market shows overwhelming confidence in a NO outcome.
• 2 AI probability indicates a slight chance of entry, but still favors NO.
• 3 High confidence level suggests market stability in current predictions.
• 4 Time to expiry is short, adding urgency to any potential developments.
• 5 Low liquidity reflects limited trading activity around this event.

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.