Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

Low probability of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by May 31, with market favoring a NO outcome.

The market shows a strong preference for a NO outcome regarding Reza Pahlavi's entry into Iran, with a probability of 93%. The Pulse AI also indicates a higher likelihood for a NO outcome at 89.5%. This suggests that current sentiment and expectations are firmly against his entry by the specified date.

• 1 Current market sentiment heavily favors a NO outcome.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a consensus against Pahlavi's entry.
• 3 Market appears to be fairly priced with a 3.5 edge.
• 4 Confidence level is moderate at 70/100, reflecting some uncertainty.
• 5 Time until expiry is over 1600 hours, allowing for potential developments.

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.