Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?

Market favors NO for Russia capturing Huliaipole by March 31.

The prediction market indicates a 69.5% probability that Russia will not capture Huliaipole by the end of March, suggesting skepticism about this outcome. The Pulse AI probability aligns closely, with a slightly higher chance for a YES outcome at 34%. With a confidence level of 65/100 and a time to expiry of 504 hours, the market appears to be fairly priced.

• 1 Current market sentiment leans heavily towards NO.
• 2 The probability gap indicates a consensus against full capture.
• 3 Historical data may show fluctuating control in contested areas.
• 4 Market liquidity suggests moderate engagement from participants.
• 5 Time pressure could influence last-minute shifts in predictions.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhya Oblast, (47°39'45.5"N 36°15'13.1"E) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Huliaipole will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area with